WHY THIS EXISTS
Flow before structure
Separate underlying conviction from option-market positioning before selecting a spread.
OPTIONS INTELLIGENCE / MONITOR V0.1
MARKET PERMISSION
Put/Call activity is treated as context and risk control—not a standalone trade signal.
| Symbol | State | Vol PCR | Premium PCR | Ask-side PCR | Tail Pressure | IV Skew | 60D Z | Permission |
|---|
WHY THIS EXISTS
Separate underlying conviction from option-market positioning before selecting a spread.
PRIMARY GUARDRAIL
Active put buying, tail demand, and steepening skew can reduce or halt short-put risk.
RESEARCH STANDARD
Production backtests will require historical chains, tradable quotes, and conservative fills.
UNDERLYING
60-DAY PCR TRACE
INTERPRETATION
SYSTEMIC RISK / MULTIVARIATE STATE SPACE
See how debt load, interest burden and asset valuation travel together—not as isolated charts, but as one evolving system.
3D REGIME MAP
Connect actual annual observations to show how the macro state entered, crossed and left modeled risk zones.
Loading observations…Drag to rotate · scroll to zoom · select a historical point to inspect its regime.
SCENARIO CONTROLS
High valuation and debt reduce the economy's shock-absorption capacity. The path still matters more than one threshold.
SYSTEMIC RISK / MULTI-VIEW ANALYTICS
OPTION MICROSTRUCTURE / MARKET EVIDENCE
Inspect listed option prices across strike, time to expiry and premium. Observed marks and actual trade prints stay separate so sparse liquidity remains visible.
Same 3D grammar, different research question. Axes and evidence are never mixed.
UNDERLYING CONTEXT / 12-WEEK HISTORY
3D QUOTE GEOMETRY
Evidence rule: the translucent mark surface is a linear visual guide—not a continuous market and not an executable price. Magenta diamonds are the actual trade prints.
POINT INSPECTOR
Gaps and missing magenta prints reveal where a smooth-looking option sheet has weak trade evidence. Use the surface to diagnose coverage before strategy construction.
PRICE EVIDENCE COMPARISON
Off-diagonal observations are direct evidence that the closing midpoint and the last recorded trade answer different questions.
FIELD AVAILABILITY
MID only supplies a closing reference but no trade evidence. Print only proves a trade occurred but does not reconstruct the closing NBBO midpoint. Neither is a listed-series hole—not a zero.
OBSERVED MARK COVERAGE
Colored cells contain the selected provider mark; dark cells contain no mark value in this strike–expiry grid.
EXECUTION EVIDENCE COVERAGE
Magenta cells prove that a trade printed; dark cells make the historical execution evidence missingness explicit.
EVIDENCE READOUT
The cloud density is loading from the selected option snapshot.
Interpolating an empty $0.50 strike grid is dangerous because a smooth sheet can assign prices to contracts that never traded—or may never have been listed.
The observed mark is the provisional end-of-day reference for the next model, while TRDPRC_1 only proves that somebody traded. On a strike with a mark and no print, what price would we actually get filled at? You do not know.
RELATIONSHIP INTELLIGENCE / WALK-FORWARD ONLY
Monitor index regime, competitors, peers, supply chains, input costs and cross-assets before turning a stock view into an option structure.
RELATIONSHIP PATHS
RELATIVE MOVE MONITOR
BACKTEST CONTRACT
MULTI-LEG OPTIONS WORKBENCH
The selected stock and horizon determine the initial structure; every leg, price, Greek and payoff remains inspectable before the combo reaches the trading desk.
Choose only the timeframe here. Change the stock from Stock Decision or the selector at the top.
ONE-TICKET COMBO
| Action | Ratio | Instrument | Expiration | Strike | Bid | Mid | Ask | Delta |
|---|
EXPIRATION PAYOFF
POSITION ANALYTICS
Model boundary: positive-P&L probability uses the selected IV and a lognormal terminal-price approximation; it is not a guaranteed POP or a live broker quote.
PAPER EXECUTION / MULTI-POSITION WORKSPACE
Stage covered calls and option packages, record fills, manage expiration decisions and monitor the running Reg T book.
UNDERLYING MARKET / ACTUAL OHLC PRINTS
ORDER TICKET
One action records both fills: BUY 100 shares and SELL 1 call per contract. No broker order leaves this workspace.
PRE-TRADE RISK GATE
| Symbol / structure | Covered units | DTE | Stock mark | Call strike | Call mark | Premium income | Unrealized P&L | Decision |
|---|
| Account / asset | Instrument | Quantity | Cost / credit | Mark | Market value | Unrealized P&L |
|---|
| Time | Order ID | Instrument | Side | Quantity | Fill | Mid at order | Slippage |
|---|
0–1 DTE / SELECTIVE SHORT-HORIZON RESEARCH
Similarity identifies historically comparable states; option context and execution quality decide whether a trade is permitted.
FACTOR ALLOCATION
WEEKLY GOVERNOR
| Factor | Weight | Role | Factor | Weight | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA3 distance | 15% | Short path | Stock relative volume | 12% | Participation |
| MA5 distance | 8% | Short path | Intraday volume density | 8% | Volume clock |
| Curve-shape overlap | 7% | Path match | Option turnover | 5% | Liquidity |
| Shock reversal | 6% | Mean reversion | Put/call volume imbalance | 6% | Flow |
| Path curvature | 6% | Acceleration | Target-leg open interest | 4% | Capacity |
| 20D range position | 5% | Location | Net premium flow | 3% | Demand |
| IV–realized edge | 3% | Volatility value | Put/call parity gap | 3% | Relative value |
| ATM implied volatility | 2% | Volatility regime | Executable credit yield | 2% | Economics |
| Quoted-spread tightness | 2% | Execution | 25Δ risk reversal | 1% | Skew |
| Put/call OI imbalance | 1% | Positioning | IV term structure | 1% | Term regime |
FINTECH 535 / COVERED CALL ASSIGNMENT
I bought 100 shares, sold one weekly call on each eligible Monday, and held the position through Friday expiration. The two missing chains are shown as skipped weeks, not invented trades.
RULE USED IN THE TEST
Loading the marked account history…
ACCOUNT EQUITY
| Time | Instrument | Side | Qty | Limit | Fill | Cash Δ | Notes |
|---|
| Date | Cash | Stock position | Short call | NAV | Initial | Maintenance | Available funds |
|---|
FILL ASSUMPTION / NEAR THE MONEY
Loading paired observations…
MY REVIEW
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| Date | Stock close | Returned calls | Complete BID/ASK | Decision | Selected contract | BID | ASK | MID | Reason |
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| Cycle | Position basis | Pricing | Outcome | Basis treatment | NAV result |
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| Date | Order ID | Instrument | Side | BID | ASK | Limit / MID | Fill assumption | Session min | Session max | Range diagnostic |
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FINTECH 535 · MY STRATEGY NOTEBOOK
Less cash up front. A different set of risks.
I replaced 100 Amazon shares with a long-dated call, then sold shorter calls against it. My question: does saving capital make this a better covered call?
Different strikes. Different expiries.
The short premium helps pay for the long call.
Real LSEG long- and short-call history. The base case buys at the observed ask and sells at the bid, plus fees. These are backtest transactions, not my live trades.
WHEN I OPEN
WHEN I CLOSE OR RENEW
PERFORMANCE
SAME $50,000 STARTING ACCOUNT
One unit in each account; unused cash earns 0%. These positions have different delta and capital exposure. The PMCC account is not scaled up to spend the cash it saves.
SAME DATES · SAME COST RULE
| Account | First debit | Net P&L | Return | Drawdown |
|---|
FOLLOW THE MONEY
I count the cost and resale value of the long call. Collecting short-call premium by itself would leave out most of this position.
MONTH BY MONTH
STRATEGY PURPOSE & IMPLEMENTATION
This is a bullish diagonal call spread, not a crash hedge. The short call brings in cash, but the long call can lose value through a price decline, time decay or falling IV.
From yesterday’s eligible quotes, choose the long expiry nearest 450 DTE within 365–550 days, then the ITM call nearest 0.80 delta. For the short, choose the expiry nearest 35 DTE within 28–62 days, then the OTM call nearest 0.25 delta. Its strike must be higher and expiry earlier than the long’s.
I chose AMZN because it has no cash dividends. This removes a dividend complication, not the risk of an earnings gap.
Buy back at the next session’s closing ask when the short reaches 7 DTE, or yesterday’s delta is at least 0.60. When flat on the short side, write again on Monday; the initial trade is January 2. Renew the long at 180 DTE, closing any short first. Stop new shorts in the final five sessions.
I fixed these rules before running the observed-quote test. Every roll records the old leg’s exit, the new leg’s entry and both fees.
Start with $50,000. Hold at most one long and one short call, with no borrowing. NAV equals cash plus the long call’s value less the short call’s liability. Close everything at the final scheduled close.
Cash is available for renewals. It is not a broker’s Reg T buying-power calculation; diagonal-spread treatment depends on the broker.
DATA QUALITY & NO LOOK-AHEAD
I rank contracts using the previous completed session’s stock close, option delta and OI. Entry requires OI ≥ 100, a valid two-sided quote and a spread no wider than 10% of midpoint for the long or 35% for the short. The selected contract is filled at the next session’s closing quote. Missing entry quotes mean no trade, not a different hindsight-selected strike.
LSEG supplies daily option bid, ask, Delta, IV and OI. WRDS supplies AMZN stock closes. I use January 2025/2026 long expiries and monthly short expiries in a fixed strike range. This is a bounded extract, not every listed contract. No option pricing formula, interpolation or last-trade fill is used.
The base case buys at ask, sells at bid and charges $0.65 per contract per transaction. Stock trades pay $0.01 per share each way. NAV marks options at the quote midpoint; liquidation NAV uses full bid/ask exit costs. EOD data cannot prove quote freshness, size or that a real order would fill.
One covered-call benchmark buyback has an ask but no bid. I use that actual ask in every scenario; I do not invent a zero bid or midpoint. Every held PMCC position has a valid daily mark. Missing held-position marks stop the run instead of being filled forward.
The long call expires and has time value. The short expiry does not define one fixed capped payoff, because the remaining long-call value depends on spot and IV. This is not a vertical spread with a single fixed maximum gain.
A short-call assignment would create a short-stock position and strike-price cash. It would not automatically exercise the long call. My live procedure would cover the stock and reassess the long, rather than exercise away its remaining time value. Historical early assignment is not modeled here; the 7-DTE and delta exits reduce exposure but cannot remove it.
I fully fund one pair and reject negative cash. The covered-call comparison buys 100 shares outright. No broker margin, portfolio leverage or interest is assumed. First debit measures starting capital used; it is not the full account balance or a guarantee of maximum loss over repeated rolls.
This is one stock in 2024, not a new blind test. The base rule was fixed before this quote replay. The nine checks below expose nearby choices; I kept the original base instead of selecting the best result. A second stock and an untouched period are still needed.
ROBUSTNESS CHECK
I change short-call delta and fill quality, keeping the rest fixed. Each cell is a separate rerun. Midpoint is an optimistic scenario, not a promised fill; fees remain in every run.
| Short delta | Midpoint | Halfway to touch | Bid / ask |
|---|
Touch means the displayed bid for a sale and ask for a purchase. Halfway pays half the distance from mid to touch. Ask-only buybacks always pay ask. The main chart and book remain the fixed 0.25-delta, bid/ask base case.
ONE BOOK, TWO VIEWS
Every simulated trade and every daily balance, with the date the decision used.
MY TAKEAWAYS
REPRODUCIBILITY
The README records the input schema, query universe, dates, tie-breaks, fees and rerun commands. The JSON contains all four accounts and all nine checks. Licensed source chains stay local; reading this page needs no data login.
.venv/bin/python -m homework2.pmcc_observedLSEG Data Library · historical option quotes, Delta and OI. WRDS / OptionMetrics · stock history. Raw licensed input rows are not public downloads.
Fidelity / Cboe: long diagonal calls · structure and assignment. Amazon investor FAQ · dividend and split history.
AI helped me implement the code and layout. I have left the rules, transactions and limitations visible so the result can be checked.
FINTECH 535
Sell puts with cash. If assigned, sell calls on the shares.
I tested whether premiums could give me steadier returns than owning the stock. I still take stock losses and give up some upside.
Cash-secured puts: cash backs 100 shares. Covered calls: 100 owned shares back the sale. If called away, restart.
Loading saved results…
Main study · $50,000 at the start; carried across both years.
Each choice is a saved backtest, not a live account or a combined portfolio. My main study is AMZN 2023–2024. Extra stock-year tests each restart with $50,000; do not add their returns together. The date control below shows holdings within the selected test.
MY TAKE
Hover for values; click a date to update the portfolio below. NAV includes cash, shares and the short option. Drawdown is the fall from the account’s previous high.
| Account | Net P&L | Return | Max drawdown | Sharpe |
|---|
All accounts start with $50,000 on the same date. The 100-share account leaves the rest in cash; the fully invested account buys as many shares as it can. Neither is exposure-matched to the wheel. Returns cover the whole selected period. Sharpe uses daily returns, √252 annualization and a 0% risk-free rate. Cash earns no interest.
On the first day and Mondays, if no option is open: sell a put when I have cash, or a covered call when I own 100 shares. Choose using the previous trading day’s data.
OI ≥100; bid–ask spread ≤25% of midpoint; standard 100-share contracts; Friday expiries on trading days. The chosen contract must have a valid execution-day quote, positive bid and daily volume ≥1. Otherwise, skip. Delta selects the strike; it is not a win probability.
At expiry, at least $0.01 in the money means assignment: a put buys 100 shares at strike; a call sells them. Otherwise, the option expires with no share trade.
Restart on an eligible Monday. Do not open an expiry beyond the test end; close all remaining holdings at the end. The base model assigns only at expiry. Early exercise and after-hours pin risk are not reconstructed; separate scenarios are under Extra checks.
Sell options at the closing bid; buy back at the ask. Fee: $0.65 per contract per trade. Stock market orders include $0.01/share slippage; assignment uses the strike with no fee.
| Fill assumption | Net P&L | Return |
|---|
The same rules are rerun at mid, bid/ask and a worse price (another 25% of the full spread beyond bid/ask). Mid is the optimistic case. At exit I pay the observed ask even if the spread has widened.
A daily quote and reported volume do not prove my order would have filled. These tests measure sensitivity to price assumptions, not live execution quality. There are no intraday fills in this study.
NAV = cash + shares − short-option value. Reserved cash is still included in NAV. “After exit costs” estimates closing the positions. Snapshots are daily closes or states immediately after simulated events, not intraday history.
With all positions closed, net option cash flow + net share cash flow = final profit. Premium collected alone is not profit.
The expanded sample and parameter tests are saved below.
AMD 2015–2024, ADBE 2018–2024, AMZN 2020–2024. Each account starts with $50,000, trades one contract and ends in cash. Rules stay fixed.
Loading annual results…
These are separate annual accounts, not one continuously compounded ten-year portfolio. Periods overlap and have been reviewed before; this is not a fresh blind test. I excluded NFLX after reviewing results. The earlier panel is archived locally.
| Stock / year | Original return / options | G012 return / options | Original / G012 drawdown | 100 shares + cash | Account |
|---|
These are three technology/growth stocks, not a broad market sample. AMZN 2022 is blocked because the split needs explicit adjusted-contract handling. Some earlier AMZN puts are unaffordable with $50,000 and remain no-trade accounts. Missing held-position quotes block a run; I do not invent them.
| Scenario | Return | Max drawdown | Scenario events |
|---|
Early assignment: assume an ITM option is assigned before expiry if midpoint minus intrinsic value is ≤$0.05/share. Near-strike tests: within 0.5% of strike at expiry, either assign or do not assign. Each scenario reruns later trades too.
These are hypothetical sensitivity tests, not observed assignments, probabilities or worst-case bounds. They do not reconstruct dividend-driven exercise or after-hours moves. OIC assignment reference.
I varied put/call Delta, a stock-cost floor for calls, and exits. Cash, quote checks and costs stayed the same.
Loading comparison…
Each row starts with $50,000. These are separate accounts, not slices of the two-year chart. Returns cover the dates shown.
| Check | Original return | G012 return | Original / G012 drawdown | Original / G012 Sharpe | 100 shares + cash |
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| ID | Put / call Delta | Call floor | Exit | 2023 return | Drawdown | Sharpe | Options completed | Selection gate |
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I had already seen 2023–2024, so this is a retrospective split, not a fresh blind test. G012 was frozen before the checks shown here; it was not retuned afterward.
This worked example stays on the original AMZN rule, regardless of the account selected above.
Results load without a login. Rerunning the backtest requires access to the licensed data. Expanded account books and parameter trials have separate downloads above.
Schwab: strategy reference · WRDS / OptionMetrics: data
I used AI to help with the code and page. The saved rules and trades show what I tested.
| Stress scenario | Estimated P&L | Limit | Status |
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